Vortrag
118th APSA Annual Meeting: "Rethink, Restructure, and Reconnect: Towards A Post-Pandemic Political Science"

Jakub Wondreys hält beim "118th APSA Annual Meeting: 'Rethink, Restructure, and Reconnect: Towards A Post-Pandemic Political Science'" in Montréal/CAN im Rahmen des Panels "(Post-) Pandemic Europe" den Vortrag "Victims or Beneficiaries of the Pandemic? Impact of COVID-19 on the Far-Right".

Abstract

Have far-right parties benefited electorally from the COVID-19 health crisis, or have they suffered? There are (at least) two logical arguments contraposing one another in answering this question. First, it makes some sense to think that the global health crisis could distract the public's attention from otherwise salient issues emphasized and often owned by the far right, such as immigration and security. Following this logic, the COVID-19 crisis should thus harm the far right electorally. Second, similar to the Great Recession, the pandemic also creates its losers and winners. During this health crisis, we have indeed seen that some far-right parties have tried to mobilize voters from the strata of the population hit the most by the restrictions adopted to curb the spread of the virus. Consequently, there is also a plausible argument that the far right could electorally profit from the COVID-19 crisis. In this project, I evaluate the merit of both arguments, while also developing a theoretical framework that may be used to understand the effects of this unprecedented crisis on electoral support of far-right parties. In this framework, two crucial aspects are theorized as central drivers of far-right electoral performance: (1) the ideological differences within the far-right party family and (2) the position of a party in the system, specifically whether it is in government or opposition. The analysis includes seven European countries (Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Slovenia, Spain, and Switzerland) and is centered on eight far-right parties from these countries (Freedom and Direct Democracy–SPD, Alternative for Germany–AfD, Fidesz, The League–LEGA, Brothers of Italy–FdI, Slovenian Democratic Party–SDS, Vox, and Swiss Peoples Party–SVP). Driven by the theory and case selection, I select to conduct Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to empirically assess my arguments.